<P> A 2017 study in the British Journal of Political Science argues that the incumbency advantage stems from the fact that voters evaluate the incumbent's ideology individually whereas they assume that any challenger shares his party's ideology . This means that the incumbency advantage gets more significant as political polarization increases . A 2017 study in the Journal of Politics found that incumbents have "a far larger advantage" in on - cycle elections than in off - cycle elections . </P> <P> Political analysts in the United States and United Kingdom have noted the existence of a sophomore surge in which first term representatives see an increase in votes in their first election . This phenomenon is said to bring an advantage of up to 10% for first term representatives, which increases the incumbency advantage . </P> <P> However, there exist scenarios in which the incumbency factor itself leads to the downfall of the incumbent . Popularly known as the anti-incumbency factor, situations of this kind occur when the incumbent has proven himself not worthy of office during his tenure and the challengers demonstrate this to the voters . An anti-incumbency factor can also be responsible for bringing down incumbents who have been in office for many successive terms despite performance indicators, simply because the voters are convinced by the challengers of a need for change . It is also argued that the holders of extensively powerful offices are subject to immense pressure which leaves them politically impotent and unable to command enough public confidence for re-election; such is the case, for example, with the Presidency of France . </P> <P> Nick Panagakis, a pollster, coined what he dubbed the incumbent rule in 1989--that any voter who claims to be undecided towards the end of the election will probably end up voting for a challenger . </P>

When does the incumbency advantage tend to be at its lowest