<P> "Rate of divorce" usually refers to the number of divorces that occur in the population during a given period . However it is also used in common parlance to refer to the likelihood of a given marriage ending in divorce (as opposed to the death of a spouse). </P> <P> In 2002 (latest survey data as of 2012), 29% of first marriages among women aged 15--44 were disrupted (ended in separation, divorce or annulment) within 10 years . Beyond the 10 - year window, population survey data is lacking, but forecasts and estimates provide some understanding . It is commonly claimed that half of all marriages in the United States eventually end in divorce, an estimate possibly based on the fact that in any given year, the number of marriages is about twice the number of divorces . Amato outlined in his study on divorce that in the late of 1990s, about 43% to 46% of marriages were predicted to end in dissolution . According to his research, there is only a small percentage of marriages end in permanent separation rather than divorce . Using 1995 data, National Survey of Family Growth forecast in 2002 a 43% chance that first marriages among women aged 15--44 would be disrupted within 15 years . More recently, having spoken with academics and National Survey of Family Growth representatives, PolitiFact.com estimated in 2012 that the lifelong probability of a marriage ending in divorce is 40%--50% . </P> <P> Variables that may affect rates of divorce include: </P> <Ul> <Li> race / ethnicity </Li> <Li> importance of religion to the couple </Li> <Li> divorce in family of origin </Li> <Li> timing of the first birth of any children (before marriage, within 7 months, after 7 months, or never) </Li> <Li> if one spouse has Generalized Anxiety Disorder </Li> </Ul>

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