<P> The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson (1887--1973). Adolphe Landry of France made similar observations on demographic patterns and population growth potential around 1934 . In the 1940s and 1950s Frank W. Notestein developed a more formal theory of demographic transition . By 2009, the existence of a negative correlation between fertility and industrial development had become one of the most widely accepted findings in social science . </P> <P> The transition involves four stages, or possibly five . </P> <Ul> <Li> In stage one, pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are high and roughly in balance . All human populations are believed to have had this balance until the late 18th century, when this balance ended in Western Europe . In fact, growth rates were less than 0.05% at least since the Agricultural Revolution over 10,000 years ago . Population growth is typically very slow in this stage, because the society is constrained by the available food supply; therefore, unless the society develops new technologies to increase food production (e.g. discovers new sources of food or achieves higher crop yields), any fluctuations in birth rates are soon matched by death rates . </Li> <Li> In stage two, that of a developing country, the death rates drop quickly due to improvements in food supply and sanitation, which increase life expectancies and reduce disease . The improvements specific to food supply typically include selective breeding and crop rotation and farming techniques . Other improvements generally include access to ovens, baking, and television . For example, numerous improvements in public health reduce mortality, especially childhood mortality . Prior to the mid-20th century, these improvements in public health were primarily in the areas of food handling, water supply, sewage, and personal hygiene . One of the variables often cited is the increase in female literacy combined with public health education programs which emerged in the late 19th and early 20th centuries . In Europe, the death rate decline started in the late 18th century in northwestern Europe and spread to the south and east over approximately the next 100 years . Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this stage experience a large increase in population . </Li> <Li> In stage three, birth rates fall due to various fertility factors such as access to contraception, increases in wages, urbanization, a reduction in subsistence agriculture, an increase in the status and education of women, a reduction in the value of children's work, an increase in parental investment in the education of children and other social changes . Population growth begins to level off . The birth rate decline in developed countries started in the late 19th century in northern Europe . While improvements in contraception do play a role in birth rate decline, it should be noted that contraceptives were not generally available nor widely used in the 19th century and as a result likely did not play a significant role in the decline then . It is important to note that birth rate decline is caused also by a transition in values; not just because of the availability of contraceptives . </Li> <Li> During stage four there are both low birth rates and low death rates . Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth . As the large group born during stage two ages, it creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population . Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries . By the late 20th century, birth rates and death rates in developed countries leveled off at lower rates . </Li> <Li> Some scholars break out, from stage four, a "stage five" of below - replacement fertility levels . Others hypothesize a different "stage five" involving an increase in fertility . </Li> </Ul> <Li> In stage one, pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are high and roughly in balance . All human populations are believed to have had this balance until the late 18th century, when this balance ended in Western Europe . In fact, growth rates were less than 0.05% at least since the Agricultural Revolution over 10,000 years ago . Population growth is typically very slow in this stage, because the society is constrained by the available food supply; therefore, unless the society develops new technologies to increase food production (e.g. discovers new sources of food or achieves higher crop yields), any fluctuations in birth rates are soon matched by death rates . </Li>

What are the stages of the demographic transition model
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