<P> The Cone of Uncertainty is narrowed both by research and by decisions that remove the sources of variability from the project . These decisions are about scope, what is included and not included in the project . If these decisions change later in the project then the cone will widen . </P> <P> Original research for engineering and construction in the chemical industry demonstrated that actual final costs often exceeded the earliest "base" estimate by as much as 100% (or underran by as much as 50%; Bauman 1958). Research in the software industry on the Cone of Uncertainty stated that in the beginning of the project life cycle (i.e. before gathering of requirements) estimates have in general an uncertainty of factor 4 on both the high side and the low side (Boehm 1981). This means that the actual effort or scope can be 4 times or 1 / 4 of the first estimates . This uncertainty tends to decrease over the course of a project, although that decrease is not guaranteed (McConnell 2006, p. 38). </P> <P> One way to account for the Cone of Uncertainty in the project estimate is to first determine a' most likely' single - point estimate and then calculate the high - low range using predefined multipliers (dependent on the level of uncertainty at that time). This can be done with formulas applied to spreadsheets, or by using a project management tool that allows the task owner to enter a low / high ranged estimate and will then create a schedule that will include this level of uncertainty . </P> <P> The Cone of Uncertainty is also used extensively as a graphic in hurricane forecasting, where its most iconic usage is more formally known as the NHC Track Forecast Cone, and more colloquially known as the Error Cone, Cone of Probability, CONUS, or the Cone of Death . (Note that the usage in hurricane forecasting is essentially the opposite of the usage in software development . In software development, the uncertainty surrounds the current state of the project, and in the future the uncertainty decreases, whereas in hurricane forecasting the current location of the storm is certain, and the future path of the storm becomes increasingly uncertain .) Over the past decade, storms have traveled within their projected areas two - thirds of the time, and the cones themselves have shrunk due to improvements in methodology . The NHC first began in - house five - day projections in 2001, and began issuing such to the public in 2003 . It is currently working in - house on seven - day forecasts, but the resultant Cone of Uncertainty is so large that the possible benefits for disaster management are problematic . </P>

How does the agile planning account for the principle represented by the cone of uncertainty