<P> As many mathematical analysts have noted, however, the state voting in a fashion most similar to that of the nation as a whole is not necessarily the tipping - point . For example, if a candidate wins only a few states but does so by a wide margin, while the other candidate's victories are much closer, the popular vote would likely favor the former . However, although the vast majority of the states leaned to the latter candidate in comparison to the entire country, many of them would end up having voted for the loser in greater numbers than did the tipping - point state . The presidential election in 2016 was a notable example, as it featured one of the largest historical disparities between the Electoral College and popular vote . As the election was quite close, the winner of the Electoral College did not capture the popular vote . Additionally, this "split" was lot larger in both directions than in previous, tighter elections, such as the one that took place in the year of 2000 . In that election, Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote by less than 1 percent, while incoming president George W. Bush won the Electoral College by only 4 votes . In contrast, 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by over 2 percentage points . This meant that Donald Trump would have picked up New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota if the popular vote had been tied, assuming a uniform shift among the battleground states . On the other hand, Clinton would have had to win the popular vote by at least 3 points in order to win the Electoral College, as Trump, the Republican nominee, won the tipping - point state of Wisconsin by less than 1 percent . </P> <P> Swing states have generally changed over time . For instance, the swing states of Ohio, Connecticut, Indiana, New Jersey and New York were key to the outcome of the 1888 election . Likewise, Illinois and Texas were key to the outcome of the 1960 election, Florida and New Hampshire were key in deciding the 2000 election, and Ohio was important during the 2004 election . Ohio has gained its reputation as a regular swing state after 1980, and last voted against the winner in 1960 . If current trends from the 2012 and 2016 elections continue, the closest results in 2020 will occur in Arizona, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska's second congressional district, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin . Other potential swing states include Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia, all of which have voted for both a Republican Candidate and a Democratic Candidate within a 5% Margin multiple times in the past six U.S. Presidential Elections (1996 - 2016). </P> <P> Professor Joel Bloom has mentioned opinion polls, previous election results, media attention, candidate campaign stops, and major advertising buys as crucial factors in identifying swing states . A 2004 article in the Oregon Daily Emerald also cites movie director Leighton Woodhouse opining that there is a general consensus among most groups regarding a majority of the states typically thought of as swing states . Additionally, the swing - state "map" may transform dramatically between election cycles, especially depending on the candidates and their policies . In addition, gradual shifts can occur within states due to changes in demography, geography, or population patterns . For example, many West - Coast or currently Republican states, like Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia, had been battlegrounds as recently as 2004 . </P> <P> A broad pundit consensus regarding the status of future battleground states developed in the years following the 2012 presidential election . Contributors included Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, and other electoral analysts . From the results of recent presidential elections, a general conclusion was reached that the Democratic and Republican parties start with a default electoral vote count of about 190 each . In this scenario, the twelve competitive states are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Colorado, and North Carolina . However, this projection was not specific to any particular election cycle, and assumed similar levels of support for both parties . </P>

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