<P> Dien Bien Phu had represented a colossal defeat for France...she was far from defeated . She retained a superiority in numbers - some 470,000 troops, roughly half of them Vietnamese, versus 310,000 on the Viet Minh side as well as control of Vietnam's major cities (Hanoi, Saigon, Huế, Tourane (Da Nang)). A fundamental alteration of the balance of forces had thus yet to occur, Giap continued, despite Dien Bien Phu . </P> <P> Wei Guoqing, the chief Chinese military adviser to the Viet Minh, said he agreed . "If the U.S. does not interfere,' Zhou asked, "and assuming France will dispatch more troops, how long will it take for us to seize the whole of Indochina?" In the best scenario, Giap replied, "full victory could be achieved in two to three years . Worst case? Three to five years ." </P> <P> That afternoon Zhou "offered a lengthy exposition on the massive international reach of the Indochina conflict...and on the imperative of preventing an American intervention in the war . Given Washington's intense hostility to the Chinese Revolution...one must assume that the current administration would not stand idly by if the Viet Minh sought to win complete victory ." Consequently, "if we ask too much at Geneva and peace is not achieved, it is certain that the U.S. will intervene, providing Cambodia, Laos and Bao Dai with weapons and ammunition, helping them train military personnel, and establishing military bases there...The central issue", Zhou told Ho, is "to prevent America's intervention" and "to achieve a peaceful settlement ." Laos and Cambodia would have to be treated differently and be allowed to pursue their own paths if they did not join a military alliance or permit foreign bases on their territory . The Mendes France government, having vowed to achieve a negotiated solution, must be supported, for fear that it would fall and be replaced by one committed to continuing the war ." Ho pressed hard for the partition line to be at the 16th parallel while Zhou noted that Route 9, the only land route from Laos to the South China Sea ran closer to the 17th parallel . </P> <P> Several days later the Communist Party of Vietnam's Sixth Central Committee plenum took place . Ho Chi Minh and General Secretary Trường Chinh took turns emphasising the need for an early political settlement to prevent a military intervention by the United States, now the "main and direct enemy" of Vietnam . "In the new situation we cannot follow the old program," Ho declared . "(B) efore, our motto was,' war of resistance until victory .' Now, in view of the new situation, we should uphold a new motto: peace, unification, independence, and democracy ." A spirit of compromise would be required by both sides to make the negotiations succeed, and there could be no more talk of wiping out and annihilating all the French troops . A demarcation line allowing the temporary regroupment of both sides would be necessary ..." The plenum endorsed Ho's analysis, passing a resolution supporting a compromise settlement to end the fighting . However, Ho and Truong Chinh plainly worried that following such an agreement at Geneva, there would be internal discontent and "leftist deviation," and in particular, analysts would fail to see the complexity of the situation and underestimate the power of the American and French adversaries . They accordingly reminded their colleagues that France would retain control of a large part of the country and that people living in the area might be confused, alienated, and vulnerable to enemy manipulations . </P>

Under the terms of the 1954 geneva conference accords vietnam was