<P> Professor Chris Budd, of the University of Bath, and Professor David Spiegelhalter, of Cambridge University, have both compared Paul's apparent success to a run of luck when tossing a coin . Under the hypothesis that Paul was equally likely to choose the winner or the loser of a match, and neglecting the possibility of a draw, he had a 1 in 2 chance of predicting a single result and a 1 in 64 chance of predicting six in a row . This feat would be unlikely to happen by chance alone, but not hugely so . Spiegelhalter points out that there are "other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches"; it is not remarkable that one animal is more successful than the others, and only the successful animals will gain public attention after the fact . Specifically, it is not remarkable that out of a perhaps large number of animals attempting this feat, one will be successful . Other experts propose that chance alone is not the only possible explanation for Paul's choices . He could have been choosing boxes systematically--if not on the basis of football expertise, then perhaps on his evaluation of the countries' flags . </P> <P> Of a total of fourteen predictions, Paul chose Germany eleven times, the only other choices selected were Spain (twice) and Serbia . The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly colour blind; neither behavioural studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a colour's hue . Nonetheless, individuals can distinguish brightness as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation . Shelagh Malham of Bangor University states that they are drawn to horizontal shapes, and indeed, there are horizontal stripes on the flags he has chosen . The flag of Germany, a bold tricolour consisting of three equal horizontal bands of black, red and gold, was Paul's usual favourite . But the flag of Spain, with its broad yellow stripe, and the flag of Serbia, with its contrast of blue and white, are more vivid still, possibly explaining why Paul picked those countries over Germany . Fey suggested that Paul was confused by the similarities between the German and Spanish flags; this was on 6 July, when Fey expressed hope that Paul's latest pick would be wrong . </P> <P> Matthew Fuller, the senior aquarist at the Weymouth park where Paul was hatched, judged the flag - design theory to be plausible: "(Octopuses) are the most intelligent of all the invertebrates and studies have shown they are able to distinguish shapes and patterns so maybe he's able to recognise flags ." Vyacheslav Bisikov, a Russian biologist, agrees that it is possible for an octopus to become attracted to a striped flag . Drosos Koutsoubos, a marine biologist at the University of the Aegean, was more cautious: "Well, I'm not a specialist in the behaviour of octopuses and I can't give you with certainty an answer to this particular question . At least to my knowledge, it's rather a matter of random selection rather than any other selection ." </P> <P> Octopus vulgaris is also equipped with sensitive chemoreceptors on its tentacles, which are used to taste food and "smell" the water . Biologist Volker Miske, of the University of Greifswald, has suggested that minor chemical differences on the surface of each box might have accounted for Paul's decisions . Bisikov stated that Paul could have been "easily trained" to choose the right box by smell . According to Paul's keepers, there were holes in the containers to help him choose . </P>

Who did the octopus pick to win the world cup