<P> There did exist a belief among Roman Catholics in Britain that the hedgehog predicted the length of winter, or so it has been claimed, but without demonstration of its age, in a publication by the Scotland - born American journalist Thomas C. MacMillan in 1886, and American writer / journalist Samuel Adams Drake's book published in 1900 . </P> <P> There are also claims of Irish lore that the hedgehog emerging out of hibernation on Brigid's Day (February 1) is a predictor of weather, and a few Celtic scholars advocate this modern Christian Irish lore to be the source of the Groundhog Day tradition in the United States . </P> <P> In Pennsylvania, Punxsutawney Phil has become a popular tradition . On February 2, people within the city will gather to find out whether or not Phil's shadow is revealed . With that, he will allegedly determine whether spring will soon begin by not seeing his shadow, or if winter will ensue for six more weeks . </P> <P> Punxsutawney Phil's statistics are kept by the Pennsylvania's Groundhog Club which cares for the animal . Phil has predicted 103 forecasts for winter and just 17 for an early spring . Most assessments of Phil's accuracy have given accuracy lower than would be expected with random chance, with Stormfax Almanac giving an estimate of 39%, and meteorologist Tim Roche of Weather Underground giving a 36% accuracy rate between 1969 and 2016 (a range chosen because local weather data was most reliable from 1969 onward) and a 47% record in that time span when predicting early spring . Other poor results from analysis are reported by the Farmer's Almanac (which itself has been known for forecasts of questionable accuracy) as "exactly 50 percent" accuracy, and The National Geographic Society reporting only 28% success . But a Middlebury College team found that a long - term analysis of temperature high / low predictions were 70% accurate, although when the groundhog predicted early spring it was usually wrong . Canadian meteorologist Cindy Day has estimated that Nova Scotia's "Shubenacadie Sam" has an accuracy rate of about 45% compared to 25% for Wiarton Willy in Ontario . </P>

What happens if punxsutawney phil sees his shadow
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