<P> Weather forecasting of wind, precipitations and humidity is essential for preventing and controlling wildfires . Different indices, like the Forest fire weather index and the Haines Index, have been developed to predict the areas more at risk to experience fire from natural or human causes . Conditions for the development of harmful insects can be predicted by forecasting the evolution of weather, too . </P> <P> Electricity and gas companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand, which can be strongly affected by the weather . They use the quantity termed the degree day to determine how strong of a use there will be for heating (heating degree day) or cooling (cooling degree day). These quantities are based on a daily average temperature of 65 ° F (18 ° C). Cooler temperatures force heating degree days (one per degree Fahrenheit), while warmer temperatures force cooling degree days . In winter, severe cold weather can cause a surge in demand as people turn up their heating . Similarly, in summer a surge in demand can be linked with the increased use of air conditioning systems in hot weather . By anticipating a surge in demand, utility companies can purchase additional supplies of power or natural gas before the price increases, or in some circumstances, supplies are restricted through the use of brownouts and blackouts . </P> <P> Increasingly, private companies pay for weather forecasts tailored to their needs so that they can increase their profits or avoid large losses . For example, supermarket chains may change the stocks on their shelves in anticipation of different consumer spending habits in different weather conditions . Weather forecasts can be used to invest in the commodity market, such as futures in oranges, corn, soybeans, and oil . </P> <P> The UK Royal Navy, working with the UK Met Office, has its own specialist branch of weather observers and forecasters, as part of the Hydrographic and Meteorological (HM) specialisation, who monitor and forecast operational conditions across the globe, to provide accurate and timely weather and oceanographic information to submarines, ships and Fleet Air Arm aircraft . </P>

What prediction method is best for making a short term forecast for a severe weather event