<P> The British army under Cornwallis marched to Yorktown, Virginia where they expected to be rescued by a British fleet . The fleet showed up, but so did a larger French fleet, so the British fleet returned to New York for reinforcements after the Battle of the Chesapeake, leaving Cornwallis trapped . In October 1781, the British surrendered their second invading army of the war, under a siege by the combined French and Continental armies commanded by Washington . </P> <P> Historians continue to debate whether the odds for American victory were long or short . John E. Ferling says that the odds were so long that the American victory was "almost a miracle". On the other hand, Joseph Ellis says that the odds favored the Americans, and asks whether there ever was any realistic chance for the British to win . He argues that this opportunity came only once, in the summer of 1776, and the British failed that test . Admiral Howe and his brother General Howe "missed several opportunities to destroy the Continental Army...Chance, luck, and even the vagaries of the weather played crucial roles ." Ellis's point is that the strategic and tactical decisions of the Howes were fatally flawed because they underestimated the challenges posed by the Patriots . Ellis concludes that, once the Howe brothers failed, the opportunity for a British victory "would never come again ." </P> <P> Support for the conflict had never been strong in Britain, where many sympathized with the Americans, but now it reached a new low . King George III personally wanted to fight on, but his supporters lost control of Parliament and no further major land offensives were launched in the American Theater . </P> <P> Washington could not know that the British would not reopen hostilities after Yorktown . They still had 26,000 troops occupying New York City, Charleston, and Savannah, together with a powerful fleet . The French army and navy departed, so the Americans were on their own in 1782--83 . The treasury was empty, and the unpaid soldiers were growing restive, almost to the point of mutiny or possible coup d'état . The unrest among officers of the Newburgh Conspiracy was personally dispelled by Washington in 1783, and Congress subsequently created the promise of a five years bonus for all officers . </P>

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