<P> Peak oil is the point at which oil production, sometimes including unconventional oil sources, hits its maximum . Predicting the timing of peak oil involves estimation of future production from existing oil fields as well as future discoveries . The most influential production model is Hubbert peak theory, first proposed in the 1950s . As of 2014, it is not widely questioned that oil production will be in decline after 2050 . The effect of peak oil on the world economy remains controversial . </P> <P> There was a consensus between industry leaders and analysts that world oil production will peak between 2010 and 2030, with a significant chance that the peak will occur before 2020 . Dates after 2030 were considered implausible by some . Determining a more specific range is difficult due to the lack of certainty over the actual size of world oil reserves . Unconventional oil is not currently predicted to meet the expected shortfall even in a best - case scenario . For unconventional oil to fill the gap without "potentially serious impacts on the global economy", oil production would have to remain stable after its peak, until 2035 at the earliest . </P>

When do experts expect the extraction of oil will reach its peak