<P> As with ENSO, the atmospheric component of the IOD was later discovered and the cumulative phenomenon named Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO). When EQUINOO effects are factored in, certain failed forecasts, like the acute drought of 2002, can be further accounted for . The relationship between extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, along with ENSO and EQUINOO, have been studied, and models to better predict the quantity of monsoon rains have been statistically derived . </P> <P> Since 1950s, the South Asian summer monsoon underwent a gradual decline, with a reduction of up to 10% over central India . This is primarily due to a weakening monsoon circulation as a result of the rapid warming in the Indian Ocean, and changes in land use and land cover . Since the strength of the monsoon is partially dependent on the temperature difference between the ocean and the land, higher ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean have weakened the moisture bearing winds from the ocean to the land . The reduction in the summer monsoon rainfall have grave consequences over central India because at least 60% of the agriculture in this region is still largely rain - fed . </P> <P> A recent assessment of the monsoonal changes indicate that the land warming has increased during 2002 - 2014, possibly reviving the strength of the monsoon circulation and rainfall . Future changes in the monsoon will depend on a competition between land and ocean--on which is warming faster than the other . </P> <P> Meanwhile, there has been a three-fold rise in widespread extreme rainfall events during the years 1950 to 2015, over the entire central belt of India, leading to a steady rise in the number of flash floods with significant socioeconomic losses . Widespread extreme rainfall events are those rainfall events which are larger than 150 mm / day and spread over a region large enough to cause floods . </P>

Why do tropical monsoon winds bring rainfall to india